An editorial in the DRS-controlled daily, Ennahar, on 28th November, described Algeria as “surrounded by Islamism in the east and
terrorism in the south.”
The result of France's 'good war' in Libya, and Algeria's duplicity in the
Sahel, have created what the Algerian regime now sees as a new political map of
the
Maghreb and Sahel. In its bitter invective, Ennahar described how these events
have enabled France “to re-establish its influence in its former Sahel colonies
and to install political systems that obey her in Libya, Tunisia and Morocco.”
This new political map represents, in the eyes of Algeria's rulers, the
revival
of
France. Algeria now sees itself as the “the only country outside the circle,
surrounded from the east and the west by pro-France Islamist governments, from
the
southeast by a country ruled by armed gangs after the fall of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi and from the extreme south by weak regimes that cannot disobey orders from the
Elysée.”
Most analysts would argue that Ennahar's analysis is exaggerated and a
reflection of the neurosis of Algeria's rulers. Certainly, neither Morocco, nor
Tunisia
and Libya 'obey' France, while it is a moot point whether the Sahel states
would
be more inclined to disobey orders from Washington or Paris.
Nevertheless, elements within the Algerian regime are clearly angered by the
situation in which they now find themselves, with the result that we are more
than
likely to see that anger being manifest in further action (i.e. 'terrorism')
against French interests in the Sahel.
Indeed, the Ennahar 'analysis' raises the question of whether the kidnap of two
Frenchmen at Hombori in Mali on 24th November, followed by the shooting of a
European tourist and the kidnap of
three others in Timbuktu the next day, might be the first salvoes in an
expression
of renewed antagonism towards France, its influence and interests in the region
and perhaps, in the light of the Libyan rebellion, NATO itself.
These latest terrorist incidents in the Sahel are analysed in depth in the
December issue of Sahara Focus. However, they do have major implications for
Algeria.
While almost all media reports, especially those in Algeria, have assumed that
the attacks have been undertaken by Al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) our information from Gao, Timbuktu and Goundam, is that the attacks were
most
likely undertaken by Tuareg. That does not exclude possible AQIM involvement, nor the possibility that the
five hostages will end up in the hands of AQIM.
According to local people in the region, however, at this stage it appears that
the Tuareg who were involved, were returnees from Libya and were probably from
Qadhafi's army or mercenaries. Local people believe that their primary motives
were to seek revenge against France and NATO for the toppling of Qadhafi, and
with
the possibility of making some money on the side.
For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.
© 2011 Menas Associates