27.05.10 Menas Associates
First Kashmir survey produces 'startling' results
Kashmir protests
A survey which a British academic says is the first systematic attempt to
establish the opinions of Kashmiris has produced "striking results".
Robert Bradnock interviewed more than 3,700 people in Indian and Pakistani-administered
Kashmir to assess their views on various issues.
One of the key questions put to respondents was how they saw the future of the
territory.
Nearly half of those interviewed said they wanted independence.
Another question asked for their views over the continuing insurgency.
Dr Bradnock - an associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank in London -
says that the survey has produced startling conclusions, especially in relation
to
the future of the territory.
No 'simple fixes'
It revealed that on average 44% of people in Pakistani-administered Kashmir
favoured independence, compared with 43% in Indian-administered Kashmir.
"However while this is the most popular option overall, it fails to carry
an overall majority on either side.
"In fact on the Indian side of the Line of Control [LoC] - which separates
the two regions - opinions are heavily polarised," Dr Bradnock told the
BBC.
The survey found that the "overwhelming majority" of people want a
solution to the dispute, even though there are no "simple fixes".
Dr Bradnock said that in the Kashmir valley - the mainly Muslim area at the
centre of the insurgency - support for independence is between 74% and 95%.
But in the predominantly Hindu Jammu division to the south, support is under 1%.
Other findings include:
> 80% of Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC say that the dispute is important
to
them personally
> Concern over human rights abuses stands at 43% on the Indian side and
19%
on
the
Pakistani side
> Concern over unemployment is strong across the territory - 66% on the
Pakistani
side and 87% on the Indian side
> Few are optimistic over peace talks - only 27% on the Pakistani side and
57%
on
the Indian side thought they would succeed.
Dr Bradnock said that it was "clear" that a plebiscite on the future
of Kashmir - along the lines envisaged in UN resolutions of 1948-1949 - is
"extremely unlikely to offer a solution today".
"The results of the polls show that that there is no single proposition for
the future of Kashmir which could be put to the population... and get majority
support," he said.
"The poll offers no simple fixes but offers signposts - through which the
political process, engaging India, Pakistan and wider Kashmiri representation -
could move it towards resolution."
Source: BBC News
Dr Robert Bradnock is a Senior Associate with Menas Associates and has written
extensively about the social and political environment in South Asia including
Kashmir. You can read a detailed article about
his Chatham House report 'Counting in Kashmir' here.